Long and Cold Winter Ahead

I chat with my friend in US recently, he was telling me that this coming Thanksgiving Holiday spending is like an indicator of American consumers confidence. If the sales is far less than everybody expected, it is going to be a hard hit for the retailers, not only that, it means people are very reluctant to spend and the economy is in really really bad shape.

Another friend was telling me that he heard some rumors that my company is going to cut down 1000 head counts in Singapore. I guess 1000 headcounts for Singapore will be too much, because I don't think there are 1000 people there. However, if 1000 headcounts spread through the entire Southeast Asia region, I think that will be possible. My boss went to Singapore yesterday, I guess he went to some management meeting. Singapore is the regional office, who knows what will happen?

Let say if the rumor is true, out of 1000 headcounts, I think Malaysia will be the one that hit most. I notice there are a lot cars in the office for the past two weeks, things has been slow. My colleague was joking that it is because all the projects had finished and people start coming back to the office.

It reminds me of what happened in US 7-8 years ago. At that time, I was working in the factory, every week, I saw the blue collars packing their stuff and leave the factory batch by batch. The manufacturing cost in US has no way to match China's cost, we cut down from 3 factories to 1. The shipping department cut down half of their work force and I see people even cry when they walk out of the office. The morale was low, very low. Everyone was like waiting for their turn to pack-and-leave. I joke with my ex ex ex .. colleague, Joi, that this winter is going to be very cold... I still remember how she chuckles after hearing what I have said.

During that period, it starts with blue collar, then the white ones. I witnessed one of the founders got laidoff, I wondered if he had fully paid off his new BMW X5, even the HR manager got herself lay off by the company, then the CEO, the stock room manager, etc. It was a stressful experience I would say.

I didn't survive after "n" rounds of layoffs. There were 4 people in my team, 1 citizen, 1 green card holder and 2 visa holders. Being a visa holder and the one who draw highest salary, there is no way you can avoid being chopped. I know my salary is 50% higher than the lowest one in the group. Anyway, after quite some time, the cycle has come back again, winds of layoff started to blow.

Well, when the moment comes, I think I will be enjoying my long vacation then, if I sell my Public Bank share may be can last me for extra half a year if I have to. :(

I forsee long and cold winter ahead... during the cold winter... I can only hope that there is still turkey out there for me to hunt.